Hezbollah's Threat to the Israeli Home Front

In a future war, Hezbollah's main effort will be placed on firing hundreds of rockets and missiles at Israel per day. The majority of this barrage will be of high statistical accuracy, with some amount of highly long range missiles capable of reaching nearly the entire State of Israel. According to an IDF Home Front Command report that describes the threat Hezbollah will pose to the Israeli home front in a future war, roughly 1,000-1,500 rockets and missiles will be launched into Israel, thousands of homes will be hit and hundreds of Israeli civilians will be injured or killed. Hundreds of thousands are expected to be evacuated from their homes. This sums up the magnitude of the threat, even despite Israel's air defense systems, which are among the best in the world.

On the ground, Hezbollah trains Special Forces to cross the border into Israel and invade Israeli towns. In this scenario, which Hezbollah has referred to as "Occupation of the Galilee", small groups of well-trained Special Forces from the "Radwan Force" will infiltrate towns, carry out widespread massacres on the residents, and take others captive as leverage for bargaining. The "Radwan Force" is currently operating in Syria and gaining experience in urban ground raids and taking control of towns.

In recent speeches, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has expressed his destructive intentions in a future war with Israel. Marking the annual "Al-Quds Day," he threatened the "Israeli enemy" that conflict between the two foes would "open the way for hundreds, even thousands of fighters from all over the Arab and Islamic world to participate." Thus, he himself views the conflict as a regional one, striving for the entire Arab world to unite against Israel. 

In July 2017, Hezbollah publicized a picture of one of its fighters holding a sign directly addressed to the IDF Arabic Spokesman, warning that the group's fighting in Syria is simply practice for its imminent invasion of Israel. This not only constitutes an overt threat to Israel, but also a clear indication that despite Hezbollah's seeming preoccupation with the fighting in Syria, its focus is on conquering Israeli villages and attacking Israeli citizens.