The Future of Iran's Presence in Syria

Syria as the logistics hub and the centerpiece of Iranian projection of power

One of Iran's major aspirations in the Middle East is the completion of a land bridge, or overland route, from its own borders to the Mediterranean Sea. If completed, this path would cover at least 800 miles of territory, including the Tigris and Euphrates valleys and the deserts of Iraq and Syria. It would even reach the edge of the Golan Heights and the Israeli border. General Soleimani is responsible for the implementation of this plan and has made headway by securing numerous key strongholds along two potential routes. The success of this project would give Iran near-complete freedom of movement to transfer arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as to other proxies in the region.

Of the two planned routes, the primary one is intended to link Baghdad and Damascus, established via the southern Syrian town of al-Tanf (strategically located at the tripartite border of Iraq, Syria, and Jordan). It should be noted that Iranian-backed Shi'ite militias who fought alongside the Iraqi military against ISIS already hold positions on the highway connecting the two capitals. It is likely that Iraqi security forces positioned in al-Anbar province and along the highway will not impede Iranian or militia activity.

The second of the land bridges would be further north, linking the Mosul area of Iraq with the former-ISIS capital of a-Raqqa in Syria. To secure this area, Iran would need to deter Iraqi or Kurdish involvement.

The strategic plan to establish these land bridges could also coincide with Iran's notion to expand its naval presence beyond its shores, with routes extending from the Persian Gulf, down to the Gulf of Aden and the shores of Yemen, and up to the Syrian coast on the Mediterranean. Alongside Iran's freedom of movement and use of military and civilian airfields in Syria and Iraq, a clear blueprint emerges of a sophisticated logistic system that facilitates the "Resistance Axis" throughout the Middle East

Ground, air, and naval corridors such as these would allow Iran to further stabilize the regime in Syria, expand its economic, cultural and political power in the region, all while achieving the fundamental goal of direct Iranian access to its proxies in Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Yemen (Houthis). In this way, Iran will extend its front with Israel from southern Lebanon to the Golan Heights.

"Syrian Hezbollah" and Beyond - A network of Paramilitary Shiite Forces

Once the war in Syria subsides, Iran will most likely pursue its well-known modus operandi of propping up its proxy militias as a means of influence over the state. This tactic is reminiscent of Iranian support of Hezbollah in Lebanon and of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units, which have already received official recognition and funds from Baghdad..

Whether Assad remains in power or a different Alawite ruler takes control, Iran will likely try to incorporate its numerous of militias into a paramilitary structure under Iranian control. These militias will be tasked with preserving the pro-Iranian government in Syria; maintaining its land corridors; supporting the "Resistance Axis"; and creating an additional military threat to Israel.

Syria as an Iranian Client State

Iranian presence in Syria is expansive and include almost all aspects of life in the war-torn country, including political, military, economic and social affairs. In post-war era, Iran will have the foundations and networks in Syria further expand its influence over the country.

Using the same methods it used in Iraq, Iran could maintain Syria as a client state. This would include strong Iranian influence over political decision making. It could also mean that IRGC commanders, advisers and doctrines along with foreign and local Shiite militias would be incorporated into the state's security architecture and apparatus. Finally, the linking of the Syrian territory with Iran's economy through trade, industry, acquisition of assets, reconstruction projects and tourism would make Syria almost irreversibly dependent on Iran for survival and ensure that Iranian influence is preserved for the foreseeable future.