Gaza Hospital Blast: Initial IDF Al-Ahli Report

The IDF has concluded an After Action Review and can confirm that the Islamic Jihad was responsible for the Gaza hospital blast that took place at the Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza on October 17th, 2023.

In this article

Incident Overview
Al-Ahli Incident Timeline
Initial IDF Response
Initial Video Response
IDF Investigation Process
Supporting Evidence of IDF Analysis
Preliminary Conclusion of Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital Event

Gaza Hospital Strike Incident Overview: Al-Ahli (Al-Ma'amadani) Hospital

On the evening of October 17th, 2023, eleven days after Hamas’ barbaric attack on Israel, reports emerged of a large blast at the Al-Ahli (Al-Ma'amadani) Hospital in Gaza City was hit by a rocket. Hamas, an organization recognized as a terrorist organization by Australia, Canada, the European Union, Israel, Japan, Paraguay, the United Kingdom and the United States, immediately claimed that the hospital had been targeted by the Israeli Air Force (IAF). Hamas' Ministry of Health immediately declared over 500 deaths and many more wounded.

After a thorough aftermath review across the IAF, Israeli Navy, fire control centers, intelligence and electronic surveillance, the IDF was able to conclude that:

• The IDF had not conducted any strikes - by air, navy or land - in the vicinity of the hospital at that time
• The rocket was fired by Islamic Jihad terrorists as part of a broader barrage targeting Israel
• The fire was likely the result of rocket fuel
• Hamas reports of damage were significantly exaggerated
• The IDF has concluded an After Action Review and can confirm that the Islamic Jihad was responsible for the strike on the Al-Ahli (Al-Ma'amadani) Hospital in Gaza.

Gaza Hospital (Al-Ahli) Incident Timeline

October 7, 2023

• 06:29: Communities and military positions across southern Israel came under attack by Hamas in a brutal massacre that would claim over 1,400 victims and see some 200 Israelis abducted into Gaza. The attack was accompanied by massive rocket fire on the Israeli homefront. This rocket fire, which would soon exceed 6,500 rockets, continues throughout the Israel - Hamas War.

October 17, 2023

• 18:15: Hamas fired a barrage of rockets at the Israeli homefront, triggering sirens in Southern Israel, including Asheklon and Rishon LeTzion.
• 18:59: The Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) fired a barrage of ten rockets at Israel from a cemetery near the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza. This triggered rocket sirens as far north as Ramat Gan, Bat Yam and Beni Brak.
• 18:59: Reports immediately emerged of an explosion at the hospital.
• IDF intelligence would later reveal that at this point, Hamas already understood that the hospital was hit by errant rocket fire. Hamas intentionally decided to leverage the international media to launch a global media campaign based on an absolute falsehood. Hamas intentionally inflated the body count in order to further galvanize international support.
• In an internal Hamas phone call, an operative admits that their rocket fire at Israeli civilians misfired (see below).
• The IDF launches an immediate internal investigation into the incident.
• 00:39: Following careful examination, the IDF releases an official denial of any involvement in the explosion at the hospital:

Initial IDF Response to Al-Ahli (Al-Ma'amadani) Hospital Incident

Distributed on October 18, 2023, at 00:39

Following an additional review and cross-examination of the operational and intelligence systems, it is clear that the IDF did not strike the hospital in Gaza.

The hospital was hit as a result of a failed rocket launched by the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization.

The terrorist organizations within the Gaza Strip fire indiscriminately toward Israel. Since the beginning of the war, approximately 450 rockets launched toward Israel have fallen within Gaza, endangering and harming the lives of Gazan residents.

See the initial report here.

Initial video response from Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, Chief IDF Spokesperson

(Oct. 18, 00:39)

IDF Investigation Process to Gaza Hospital Incident

1. Assessment of operational activity: The IDF began by ruling out any offensive activities in the immediate vicinity at the time of the explosion in the hospital. This included cross-referencing activity with the Israeli Air Force, the Israeli navy, land forces, and other relevant organizations.
2. Review of operational systems: The investigation continued with careful review of electronic monitoring, specifically Israeli radar systems that track rocket fire from the Gaza Strip. It is clear from the trajectory analysis of the barrage of rockets fired at the time that rockets fired from Gaza at 18:59 were fired in close proximity to the hospital. This appears to be further confirmed by multiple independent video sources available online, in which it is clear that during the rocket salvo, one of the rockets landed within the Gaza Strip. 
3. Intelligence Analysis: Israeli Military Intelligence then carefully reviewed SIGINT (Signal Intelligence) sources to evaluate what the Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad knew. An intercepted phone call revealed that the terrorists were well-aware that a rocket had misfired and made specific reference to the Al-Ahli Hospital. This intercept was cross-referenced with other intelligence sources to confirm its accuracy. 
4. Information Distribution: Once - and only once - the IDF was able to confirm that this was the case, the update was distributed. The IDF continued with a media briefing conducted at 09:30 on October 18th and will continue to share expanded information with key partners

Supporting Evidence of the IDF Analysis

Aerial Surveillance of Impact Site

This picture compares aerial footage of the site of the hospital before (October 15, 2023) and after (October 17, 2023) the rocket impact. Based on these images, we cannot identify a direct hit on the hospital itself, Instead, it appears that the rocket landed in the parking lot. The primary point of impact is outside the hospital, in the parking lot, where signs of a fire are evident but no cratering or structural damage to nearby buildings is evident.

Telltale signs of an aerial strike - namely cratering and structural damage to the building - is glaringly absent. The picture below shows, for comparison, what an aerial strike would have looked like.

The indications of a fire are to be expected given the type of rockets fired by the Islamic Jihad rocket, with much of the rocket propellent still within the rocket due to the significantly shorter flight path of the rocket. The visual footage below shows infrared imagery of the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital’s parking lot. The primary location of the fires is visible, as is debris on the rooftops. Again, no craters are visible and all the walls of the surrounding buildings are intact.

Radar Trajectory of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Rocket Salvo

Given the local production of many of the rockets, it is not uncommon for terrorist rockets - intended to be fired on Israeli civilians - to misfire and hit civilians in Gaza. This is yet another way in which the residents of Gaza pay a horrific price for Hamas and the Islamic Jihad’s human shields. In the 2023 Hamas - Israel War alone, as of October 18, about 450 rockets fired from the Gaza Strip have misfired and landed in the Gaza Strip - about 5% of all rockets fired.

The following graphic shows the trajectory of the rockets fired by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad at 18:59, clearly displaying the proximity of the rockets’ flight to the hospital.

Intercepted Phone Call Between Hamas Operatives

This is the audio and transcript of a phone call intercepted by the IDF intelligence on October 17, 2023, indicating that the Hamas was well-aware of the origin of the rocket fire.

Hamas Operative #1

“I’m you telling this is the first time that we see a missile like this falling”

Hamas Operative #2

that's so that’s why we are saying it belongs to the Palestinian Islamic [Jihad]

Hamas Operative #1

What?

Hamas Operative #2

They are saying it belongs to the Palestinian Islamic

Hamas Operative #1

It’s from us?

Hamas Operative #2

It’s looks like it.

Hamas Operative #1

Who says it?

Hamas Operative #2

They are saying that the shrapnel from the missile is local shrapnel and not like Israeli shrapnel

Hamas Operative #1

What are you saying, REDACTED?

 Hamas Operative #2

 But god bless, it couldn’t have found another place to explode?

 Hamas Operative #1

 Nevermind, yes, REDACTED, they shot it from the cemetery behind the hospital

Hamas Operative #2

What?

Hamas Operative #1

They shot it coming from the cemetery behind the Al-Ma’amadani Hospital (Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital) and it misfired and fell on them

Hamas Operative #2

There’s a cemetery behind it?

Hamas Operative #1

The Al-Ma’amadani Hospital is exactly in the compound

Hamas Operative #2

Where is it when you enter the compound?

Hamas Operative #1

You first enter the compound and don’t go toward the city and it’s on the right side of the Al-Ma’amadani Hospital

Hamas Operative #2

yes, I know it.

—

It’s clear from this phone call that within a short time after the incident, Hamas was well aware of the source of the attack on the residents of Gaza - rocket fire from Gaza.

Preliminary Conclusion of Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital Event

In stark contrast to Hamas, which extended its psychological operations, crimes against humanity, and crimes against the people of Gaza, the IDF launched an immediate examination, which was overseen at the very highest levels of command.

This professional review was conducted leveraging a broad range of information sources, including intelligence analysis, the use of operational military systems, and aerial footage. This information was all carefully cross-checked. It is absolutely impossible in the fog of war to provide accurate, reliable and credible analyses like that of the Hamas, in such a short time. This is yet another indication of the lies perpetuated by the terrorist organization.

The evidence, which the IDF made available despite currently being engaged in a war to protect the people of Israel, confirms with no room for doubt that the explosion at the Al-Ahlai Hospital in Gaza was caused by an Islamic Jihad rocket that misfired.

The IDF will continue to act in accordance with international law. This incident shows how allegations — in this case, false and baseless allegations made by terrorists — against Israel can spread and inflame tensions in the region.

As Rear Admiral Hagari said a press statement on October 18:

We have to win this information war with evidence, not with forced, uncredible statements. We have to win it with evidence. We have no other way. We must stay moral, we must play according to international law. We have no other way. Otherwise, we won’t be a democratic, liberal country. And this is what we are fighting. It’s a democratic, liberal country fighting Hamas/ISIS-controlled Gaza area with innocent civilians that he’s using as a human shield…we cannot live next to our borders with Hamas/ISIS governance that will threaten our civilians and do massacres.